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September 2021 Duncan BC Real Estate Review
By David Lowes, Duncan Realtor
The Cowichan Valley continues to see tremendous pressure on housing with many people buying homes and moving to our beautiful valley. Low inventory is resulting in rising prices and keeping us firmly in a seller’s market. Mill Bay and Maple Bay continue to be particularly popular, but all places throughout Duncan and the Cowichan Valley are strong for selling homes.
Real Estate Inventory Duncan & Cowichan valley
At the end of September, the Cowichan Valley and Duncan real estate inventory for single-family dwellings was 90 active listings down from 137 this time last year. This would equate to about 3 weeks of inventory in a normal housing market. More houses would be selling if we had more inventory.
Our average sale price for single-family dwellings throughout the Cowichan Valley in September 2021 was $785,954 while in September 2020, our average sale price was $605,304 which is a 29% increase in sale prices over the year for single-family detached homes.
In the Duncan, BC area the sales to list ratio was 88.9% which means most of the houses which list are being sold- 90 listed and 80 sold in September.
Real Estate Inventory 2022
Homes are commonly selling over listing prices with the average home price sale 103% of list price. This is still a strong seller’s market with houses selling over list price which is expected with low inventory and multiple offers.
The average amount of time a single-family dwelling sits on the market is 22 days, compared to this time last year where houses averaged 40 days on the market.
With looming interest rate hikes and increased prices being projected into 2022 I expect affordability and low inventory will remain issues for some time throughout the Cowichan Valley.
See the current house statistics media release information below and for further information, visit the Vancouver real estate board.
MEDIA RELEASE – OCTOBER 1, 2021
HOW LOW CAN HOUSING INVENTORY GO?
NANAIMO, BC – The housing market in the Vancouver Island Real Estate Board (VIREB) area finished summer the way it began, with historically low inventory and rising prices.
Active listings of single-family homes were 47 per cent lower last month than in September 2020, while VIREB’s inventory of condo apartments and row/townhouses dropped by 57 per cent and 48 per cent, respectively, from one year ago.
There were 932 unit sales in the VIREB area last month, down 27 per cent from one year ago. By category, 447 single-family homes sold in September, down three per cent from August and 30 per cent year over year. September saw 122 condo apartment sales compared to 123 one year ago and 101 in August. In the row/townhouse category, there were 86 sales last month, down 21 per cent from September 2020 and five per cent from the previous month.
In its most recent housing forecast, the British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) states that the supply situation is especially severe in markets outside the Lower Mainland, including Vancouver Island. Listings activity has been lacklustre, and even if sales come back down to long-run average levels, total listings would need to nearly double to bring markets back into balance.
Ian Mackay, 2021 VIREB President, confirms that lack of inventory is hampering sales in the VIREB area, and multiple offers on well-priced, quality properties continue to be the norm.
“There is no doubt that sales would be considerably higher if we had more listings,” says Mackay. “The demand is there, but the supply isn’t.”
Mackay advises that while obtaining the advice of a local REALTOR® can help in any market, it is particularly crucial in a busy one.
“In a competitive housing market, using a REALTOR® can help streamline the buying and selling process to ensure the best possible outcome while mitigating associated risks,” says Mackay.
The board-wide benchmark price of a single-family home reached $747,600 in September, up 32 per cent year over year and slightly higher than in August. In the apartment category, the benchmark price hit $395,100 last month, a one per cent increase from August and up by 30 per cent year over year. The benchmark price of a townhouse rose by 34 per cent from the previous September and by two per cent from August, climbing to $578,500.
In Campbell River, the benchmark price of a single-family home hit $653,700 in September, up by 29 per cent from the previous year. In the Comox Valley, the year-over-year benchmark price rose by 31 per cent to $771,300. The Cowichan Valley reported a benchmark price of $755,000, an increase of 34 per cent from September 2020. Nanaimo’s benchmark price rose by 28 per cent, hitting $745,400, while the Parksville-Qualicum area saw its benchmark price increase by 33 per cent to $869,000. The cost of a benchmark single-family home in Port Alberni reached $494,500, a 40 per cent year-over-year increase.
The benchmark price for the North Island rose by 49 per cent, hitting $404,100 in September.
VIREB represents over 1,000 REALTORS® in nearly 90 member offices on Vancouver Island, from the Malahat in the south to the northern tip.
VIREB cautions that average price information can be useful in establishing trends over time but does not indicate the actual prices in centres comprised of widely divergent neighbourhoods or account for price differential between geographic areas.
Trademarks are owned or controlled by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) and identify real estate professionals who are members of CREA (REALTOR®) and/or the quality of services they provide (MLS®).
HPI Note: Areas with insufficient data do not generate statistics and are not included in the HPI graphs.
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About David Lowes
David has been a Duncan REALTOR® serving clients throughout the Cowichan Valley at RE/MAX Island Properties (formerly RE/MAX of Duncan) for over 10 years.
If you have any questions, please call him on 250-748-7200.